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⚡ BREAKING

REUTERSGlobal markets volatile — Iran-Hormuz conflict escalates · Brent crude hits $119/bbl

BLOOMBERGFederal Reserve holds rates 4.25% — Powell: "Insufficient inflation progress" · No cuts until Q3 2026

APWTO warns of global trade fragmentation risks — US-China tariff dispute escalates to critical phase

TECHCRUNCHOpenAI unveils GPT-5 with 40% performance gains · Anthropic raises $3B in Series E

BBCG7 emergency summit on AI regulation and digital trade governance — Geneva, March 2026

FTECB signals further cuts — Eurozone inflation falls to 1.8% · Rate now at 2.65%

REUTERSSuez Canal traffic down 18% — Global shipping rerouting via Cape of Good Hope adds 12 days

BLOOMBERGNvidia surpasses $4 trillion market cap · TSMC reports record Q1 revenue on AI chip demand

REUTERSGlobal markets volatile — Iran-Hormuz conflict escalates · Brent crude hits $119/bbl

BLOOMBERGFederal Reserve holds rates 4.25% — Powell: "Insufficient inflation progress" · No cuts until Q3 2026

APWTO warns of global trade fragmentation risks — US-China tariff dispute escalates to critical phase

TECHCRUNCHOpenAI unveils GPT-5 with 40% performance gains · Anthropic raises $3B in Series E

BBCG7 emergency summit on AI regulation and digital trade governance — Geneva, March 2026

FTECB signals further cuts — Eurozone inflation falls to 1.8% · Rate now at 2.65%

REUTERSSuez Canal traffic down 18% — Global shipping rerouting via Cape of Good Hope adds 12 days

BLOOMBERGNvidia surpasses $4 trillion market cap · TSMC reports record Q1 revenue on AI chip demand

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Proprietary Intelligence Indicators

METATRENDIA RESEARCH

Global Risk Appetite

28_/100

Risk-Off

Composite: VIX, EM spreads, credit conditions & cross-asset flows. Extreme caution zone.

Monetary Policy Pressure

61_/100

Easing Bias

Fed rate path probability + real yield spread + global financial conditions index.

Geopolitical Stress Index

87_/100

Critical

Iran + Taiwan + Russia-Ukraine + Red Sea disruptions. Systemic energy risk elevated.

Credit Stress Indicator

73_/100

Elevated

HY spreads + IG OAS + leveraged loan conditions + corporate default trajectory.

34

/100

RISK-OFF · DEFENSIVE

BearNeutralBull

RECOMMENDED POSITIONING

Gold · Short Duration · Defensive Equities · Cash OW · Energy via geopolitical premium

CYCLE PHASE

Late Expansion

FED STANCE

Cautious Hold

EQUITY BIAS

Underweight

SAFE HAVEN

Overweight

USD BIAS

Underweight

COMMODITIES

Overweight

DURATION

Short Bias

VOLATILITY

Elevated

🏛️

US Macro Intelligence

OFFICIAL DATA

Updated on official release

INFLATION

CPI YoY

FEB 26

3.2%

▲ +0.1ppAbove Target

Core PCE

JAN 26

2.8%

▲ +0.2ppSticky

PPI YoY

FEB 26

2.6%

▼ -0.1ppEasing

5Y Breakeven

Current

2.52%

▲ +3bpsElevated

EMPLOYMENT

Unemployment

FEB 26

4.1%

▲ +0.1ppNear Full

NFP MoM

FEB 26

+151K

↓ vs 170KMiss

Init. Claims

Mar 15

223K

▼ -1K WoWResilient

JOLTS

JAN 26

7.74M

▲ +184KHealthy

CONFIDENCE

Consumer Conf.

MAR 26

92.9

▼ -7.2Weak

UMich Sentiment

MAR 26

57.9

▼ -4.42yr Low

ISM Mfg.

FEB 26

50.3

▲ +0.6Expanding

Retail Sales

FEB 26

-0.9%

↓ vs +0.1%Miss

FED · RATES

Fed Funds

MAR 26

4.25%

On HoldCautious

2Y/10Y Spread

Current

-18bps

InvertedCaution

Next Cut

Jun 26

62%

FedWatchLikely

Real Yield

10Y TIPS

+2.04%

▲ +5bpsRestrictive

GLOBAL

ECB Rate

MAR 26

2.65%

▼ CuttingDovish

China PMI

FEB 26

50.8

▲ vs 50.1Beat

Japan CPI

JAN 26

4.0%

▲ HotBoJ Risk

UK GDP

Q4 2025

+0.1%

StagnantWeak

💼 Asset Class Views

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AssetPriceDaily52WView

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Nasdaq 100———OW

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10Y Treasury———N

Bitcoin———N

Silver XAG/USD———OW

VIX Index———Watch

EUR / USD———OW

📅 Economic Calendar

THIS WEEK

Fed Chair Powell Speech

Today · 10:00 ET

—Hawkish

US CPI MoM — March

Apr 10 · 08:30 ET

+0.3%+0.2%

Initial Jobless Claims

Apr 10 · 08:30 ET

225K223K

EIA Crude Inventories

Apr 10 · 10:30 ET

-1.8Mb+13.4Mb

FOMC Minutes Release

Apr 11 · 14:00 ET

—On Hold

US Core PPI MoM

Apr 11 · 08:30 ET

+0.2%+0.1%

UMich Sentiment Final

Apr 12 · 10:00 ET

58.057.9

ECB Rate Decision

Apr 17 · 08:15 ET

2.40%2.65%

🚨 Research Alerts

5 ACTIVE

🔴

Iran — Strait of Hormuz Critical

Brent $119/bbl. 21% global supply at risk. Energy OW maintained.

TODAY · MAX PRIORITY

🔴

Fed On Hold — No Cuts Until Q3 2026

2Y/10Y -18bps inverted. Duration risk elevated. Short-end bias.

MAR 19 · 14:00 ET

🟡

UMich Sentiment 57.9 — 2-Year Low

Inflation expectations 4.9%. Stagflation risk rising. Defensive rotation.

MAR 14 · 10:00 ET

🟡

Red Sea: Suez Traffic Down 18%

Shipping rerouting +12 days. Supply chain disruption spreading.

MAR 12 · 09:00 ET

🔵

China PMI 50.8 — Beat Estimates

Asia demand intact. EM and commodities supported. China OW.

MAR 08 · 08:00 ET

METATRENDIA

CPI3.2%▲ Above 2% Target

FED4.25%● On Hold Mar 2026

IRANEscalating▲ Brent $119 · Hormuz Risk

ECB2.65%▼ Cutting · Eurozone Dovish

SUEZ-18% Traffic▼ Cape of Good Hope Rerouting

AINvidia $4T▲ AI chip demand record

REGIME34/100▼ Risk-Off · Defensive

CPI3.2%▲ Above 2% Target

FED4.25%● On Hold Mar 2026

IRANEscalating▲ Brent $119 · Hormuz Risk

ECB2.65%▼ Cutting · Eurozone Dovish

SUEZ-18% Traffic▼ Cape of Good Hope Rerouting

AINvidia $4T▲ AI chip demand record

REGIME34/100▼ Risk-Off · Defensive

MetaTrendia Global Intelligence Terminal

Live --:--:-- UTC 3,241 active

SPX5,412.3+0.84% NDX17,891+1.02% DJI38,904+0.33% DAX18,234+0.67% FTSE8,241-0.21% N22538,102-0.44% HSI17,803-0.88% BTC/USD63,241-1.12% ETH/USD3,402+2.10% EUR/USD1.0821+0.22% GBP/USD1.2714-0.08% USD/JPY157.34-0.09% DXY104.82+0.18% 10Y UST4.38%-2bp 2Y UST4.72%-1bp VIX13.40-0.80 GOLD2,321+0.54% WTI78.40-0.31% BRENT82.10-0.22% COPPER4.42+0.76% SILVER29.14+0.41% SPX5,412.3+0.84% NDX17,891+1.02% DJI38,904+0.33% DAX18,234+0.67% FTSE8,241-0.21% N22538,102-0.44% BTC/USD63,241-1.12% EUR/USD1.0821+0.22% 10Y UST4.38%-2bp GOLD2,321+0.54% VIX13.40-0.80 WTI78.40-0.31%

All

Economics

Markets

Politics

Sports

Economics Reuters 12 min ago Global

Federal Reserve holds rates at 5.25–5.50%, signals single cut in 2024 as inflation remains persistently above target

The FOMC voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate. Chair Powell stated that while inflation has eased, progress toward the 2% target has been slower than anticipated. The updated dot plot now projects one cut by year-end, down from three. Markets repriced September cut odds to 28%.

Agrees 67%Disagrees 33%

1,487 responses · 134 comments

Reuters ↗

MarketsBloomberg · 31m

Nvidia surpasses $3 trillion market cap, overtaking Apple as second-largest company globally by valuation

643 responses

PoliticsLe Monde · 1h

France elections: RN leads by 8 points in latest Ifop poll ahead of legislative second round this Sunday

892 responses

Latest headlines Sorted by recency

OPEC+ extends production cuts of 3.66 mb/d through Q1 2025; Brent recovers above $82 per barrel

EconomicsFinancial Times · 2h112 comments

Agrees 71%

OpenAI launches multimodal GPT-5 with real-time capabilities; Alphabet shares fall 4.2% on competitive pressure

MarketsWSJ · 3h289 comments

Disagrees 58%

Copa América: Colombia advances to semifinals after late Rodríguez strike in extra time against Brazil

SportsESPN · 4h1,892 comments

Agrees 91%

China's yuan weakens to 7.26 per dollar, lowest level since November 2023; PBOC sets a firmer daily fixing

EconomicsBloomberg · 5h98 comments

Neutral 54%

ECB's Lagarde signals possible additional rate cut in September if eurozone wage pressures ease further

EconomicsFinancial Times · 6h76 comments

Agrees 63%

UK inflation falls to 2.0%, hitting Bank of England target for the first time since 2021; August cut now likely

EconomicsReuters · 7h203 comments

Agrees 84%

Tesla Q2 deliveries beat estimates at 444,000 vehicles; shares surge 7% in pre-market on renewed demand optimism

MarketsCNBC · 8h156 comments

Agrees 76%

Wimbledon: Alcaraz reaches quarterfinals in straight sets, on course for second consecutive title defence

SportsESPN · 9h412 comments

Agrees 88%

Banxico holds benchmark rate at 11.00%, citing peso volatility and uncertainty ahead of US presidential election

EconomicsBloomberg · 10h67 comments

Neutral 49%

Iran holds presidential runoff amid record low turnout; reformist Pezeshkian leads early count by narrow margin

PoliticsAP · 11h189 comments

Neutral 51%

JPMorgan raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600 citing resilient corporate earnings and AI infrastructure capex cycle

MarketsBloomberg · 12h241 comments

Agrees 69%

Eurozone PMI signals modest expansion in June as resilient services activity offsets persistent manufacturing weakness

EconomicsReuters · 13h54 comments

Agrees 61%

Real Madrid completes Mbappé signing on free transfer from PSG; presentation set for Santiago Bernabéu this weekend

SportsESPN · 14h3,104 comments

Agrees 95%

India's RBI maintains repo rate at 6.50% for eighth consecutive meeting; GDP growth forecast kept at 7.2%

EconomicsReuters · 15h43 comments

Agrees 58%

Boeing reaches plea deal with DOJ over 737 MAX crashes; faces $487 million fine and two years of federal oversight

MarketsWSJ · 16h312 comments

Disagrees 64%

UN Security Council to vote this week on Gaza ceasefire resolution amid renewed US and Egyptian diplomatic pressure

PoliticsAP · 17h528 comments

Neutral 47%

Japan intervenes in FX market again as yen breaches 158 per dollar; estimated $22 billion spent in single session

EconomicsBloomberg · 18h87 comments

Agrees 72%

Biden camp rejects calls to step aside after debate performance; internal polling shows tightening race in Pennsylvania

PoliticsNYT · 19h1,432 comments

Neutral 44%

BlackRock's assets under management reach record $10.6 trillion; ETF flows accelerate on institutional demand

MarketsBloomberg · 20h91 comments

Agrees 79%

NBA Draft 2024: Atlanta Hawks select Zaccharie Risacher first overall; French teenager youngest No.1 pick since LeBron

SportsESPN · 21h744 comments

Agrees 82%

Brazil's Lula signals infrastructure spending push as Petrobras posts record quarterly dividend of $5.2 billion

EconomicsFT · 22h59 comments

Agrees 66%

Microsoft and OpenAI partnership under EU antitrust review; regulators examine market concentration in AI infrastructure

MarketsReuters · 23h177 comments

Disagrees 55%

MTI — MetaTrendia News Impact Index · 30-day rolling composite

MTI Composite Market Stress Community Sentiment

MTI Indices Proprietary

MTI Composite

64.3

+2.1 vs yesterday · Risk-On regime

Sentiment

Bullish

67% of flow

Vol. Regime

Low

VIX 13.4

News Flow

High

+34% vs avg

Risk Bias

Long

DXY neutral

Key indices

S&P 500

5,412

+0.84%

Nasdaq 100

17,891

+1.02%

DAX

18,234

+0.67%

10Y UST

4.38%

-2bp

DXY

104.82

+0.18%

Gold

$2,321

+0.54%

BTC/USD

63,241

-1.12%

VIX

13.40

-0.80

Prediction markets 3 open

Will the Fed cut rates before December 2024?

Yes, at least one cut62%1.62×

No cut this year38%2.63×

Will Colombia win Copa América 2024?

Colombia wins41%2.44×

Colombia does not win59%1.70×

Will S&P 500 reach 5,600 before year-end 2024?

Reaches 5,60055%1.82×

Does not reach45%2.22×

Community sentiment

Economics68% positive

Markets52% neutral

Politics71% negative

Sports89% positive

Trending topics Live

1Fed rates 202412.4K+

2Mbappé Real Madrid11.2K+

3Nvidia $3T9.1K+

4Copa América 20248.7K+

5France elections7.2K+

6GPT-5 launch6.8K+

7Boeing DOJ deal5.3K+

8BlackRock $10T4.6K+

9OPEC+ extension4.1K—

10UK inflation 2.0%3.2K+

Community feed

@macro_latam2m

Powell is playing a dangerous game. Services inflation remains above 4% — one cut is not credible at this stage.

@delta_neutral8m

Labor market is the wildcard. JOLTS still elevated, which gives the Fed cover to hold longer than markets expect.

@em_alpha14m

DXY strength compresses EM central banks. BRL and COP particularly vulnerable if we stay above 104.

@equity_desk19m

JPM's 5,600 target looks conservative if AI capex holds. Watch hyperscaler guidance next earnings season.

@fx_desk26m

BOJ intervention is a band-aid. Without rate differential narrowing, yen weakness resumes within weeks.